Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028.
This forecast positions Nintendo as the console market leader, surpassing Microsoft and Sony, primarily due to the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release and limited initial competition. The report suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these are considered to be in earlier development stages, with potential releases around 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2, barring any surprise releases, gives it a significant advantage. DFC Intelligence anticipates only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles to achieve significant success, mentioning a potential "PS6" as a strong contender due to PlayStation's established player base and popular franchises.
The Switch's enduring popularity is highlighted by Circana's data showing its lifetime US sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2. Despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline, the Switch holds the second position in all-time US video game hardware sales, trailing only the Nintendo DS.
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry, projecting robust growth through the end of the decade after a recent downturn. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The expanding gaming audience, predicted to reach over 4 billion players by 2027, coupled with the rise of esports and gaming influencers, fuels further growth in hardware sales across PC and consoles. The accessibility of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via portable systems is also a key contributing factor.
